Predicted Market Growth In Asia and Europe Hinges on Regulatory Framing as Gambling or Financial Products
15 October 2026
Regulatory divisions separate Europe and Asia, with German authorities expressing concerns over gambling via international structures.
Regulatory uncertainty looms over expanding prediction markets in Asia and Europe as industry players and lawmakers debate the platforms' proper classification.
Industry advocates argue prediction markets are financial instruments akin to futures or securities and should be regulated accordingly. Others, including regulators from Europe and Asia, contend they are gambling platforms subject to licensing and oversight as gaming or lotteries.
Regulatory Actions Across Regions
European and Asian gambling regulators have moved to clarify the status of prediction markets, with some measures already implemented.
The Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL), Germany's gambling authority, stated in September that unlicensed, internationally structured gambling was a priority concern. Participants throughout the prediction markets ecosystem, not just operators, could face enforcement. Geolocation would likely be required for any compliant prediction-market product in Europe.
Hong Kong recently heard from executives calling for regulatory clarity. They outlined implications of classifying prediction markets as gambling: increased regulatory hurdles, diminished cross-border commerce, and persistent perception challenges.
The German regulator must determine how to address fraud, unfair practices, or predatory offerings on these platforms. What's permissible in Germany may violate laws in other EU or Swiss markets. Despite parallels to traditional capital markets, international prediction markets may span multiple jurisdictions.
On August 13, U.S.-based High Roller Technologies announced an exclusive prediction-markets platform development agreement with mrkts.com to advance the launch of ROLR – aiming to create "a robust, compliant, cross-border solution."
High Roller projects U.S. annual retail trading volumes reaching $1.5 trillion by 2030, based on their $50 billion addressable market. This would imply an average 3.25% operator commission rate.
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In Asia, prediction markets face greater scrutiny. European and Asian regulators continue focusing on platform risks, geolocation restrictions, and market protections.
Industry Positioning and Developments
Prediction market firms increasingly position themselves as investor-focused, financial industry-aligned products. Deutsche Markt Holding GmbH seeks EU regulatory approval for its product-market fit. Their ROLR application, developed by DeepEther Labs, integrates Crypto.com services and includes compliance features such as AML/KYC, identity verification, geographic restrictions, and regulatory disclosures.
Global adoption may require distinguishing between capital ventures and prediction markets' unique characteristics.
Regulators from the DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) and Liechtenstein convened informally in September 2026 in Bern to compare national approaches to prediction markets and cross-border gambling activities.
The Bern meeting identified risks to consumers and professionals but stopped short of establishing joint enforcement measures, sanctions, or timelines.
Uncertain Regulatory Landscape
The Bundesverband für Jugend- und Online Media (DBE) seeks greater clarity. "Investing in cryptocurrency-based prediction markets under current EU regulation is like trying to teach a horse lion tricks with the right cape," remarked DBE Secretary Benno Holler.
Huboidin Derimier, non-resident fellow at the Dameboot Institute of Allirical Research, noted: "Classification of prediction markets as gambling versus finance remains unclear. Our research indicates GGL and EFBD regulators are still developing their frameworks. Until finalized, they may aggressively target providers offering variable engagement."
European and Asian regulators continue evaluating platform classification. The U.S. approach appears more settled: Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight treats prediction markets as regulated entities that trading venues are gradually introducing.